Войната в Сирия

[Thorn]

Unconfirmed reports

=

[Dinain]

Още unconfirmed reports:

Report: Iran deploys 15,000 troops to help Syria's Assad
Published: 02.07.12, 17:22 / Israel News
The Al Arabiya news channel reported that Iran's Revolutionary Guard has deployed 15,000 armed troops to Syria recently in order to help Syrian President Bashar Assad in his fight against opposition forces. (Roi Kais)

Syria’s most senior defector predicts Assad’s army collapse
Sunday, 05 February 2012
General Mustafa al-Sheikh said the Syrian army could soon meet a dead-end in its violent crackdown on dissent. (Reuters)
By AL ARABIYA
The most senior Syrian army defector has said that Bashar al-Assad’s army is close to collapse this month.
“The army will collapse during February,” General Mustafa al-Sheikh told The Telegraph in his first full-length newspaper interview.
“The reasons are the shortage of Syrian army personnel, which even before March 15 last year did not exceed 65 percent. The proportion of equipment that was combat ready did not exceed that, due to a shortage of spare parts.” General Sheikh added.
“The Syrian army combat readiness I would put at 40 per cent for hardware and 32 per cent for personnel.
“They are sending in elements from the Shabiha (militia) and the Alawite sect to compensate, but this army is unable to continue more than a month. Some elements of the army are reaching out to the FSA to help them to defect.”

http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/02/05/192754.html

[Kramer]

На мен ми направи тиражираната в медиите новина за над 200 убити в Хомс от минохвъргачен обстрел. За толкова жертви от МХ обстрел трябва да стреля един полк от "гвардейски" минохвъргачки на РГК на Червената армия.

[Кухулин]

British and Qatari special operations units are operating with rebel forces under cover in the Syrian city of Homs just 162 kilometers from Damascus, according to DEBKAfile’s exclusive military and intelligence sources. The foreign troops are not engaged in direct combat with the Syrian forces bombarding different parts of Syria's third largest city of 1.2 million. They are tactical advisers, manage rebel communications lines and relay their requests for arms, ammo, fighters and logistical aid to outside suppliers, mostly in Turkey.

Играта със сирийската информация е много по-дълбока, между другото. Не случайно мисията на международните наблюдатели заглъхна - не можаха да овладеят потока.

[Гост]

Всичко зависи от това доколко масово сирийците са узрели да разкарат режима.

[Dinain]

The Syrian army has launched fresh mortar and rocket attacks in the city of Homs, as the government continues a push aimed at crushing rebel forces.
9 February 2012 Last updated at 15:23 GMT
Activists say 95 people have been killed so far on Thursday. Hundreds have reportedly died since last week.
Homs, Syria's third-largest city, has been a leading focus of unrest in the 11-month uprising against President Bashar al-Assad's rule.
UN chief Ban Ki-moon condemned the "appalling brutality" of the onslaught.
The international community is struggling to find a way to resolve the crisis after Russia and China blocked a UN resolution drafted by Arab and European countries on Saturday.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16959446

[bsb]

Моля за извинение за отклонението - няма повече.

.....
Относно медийните лъжи - пак подхождаш несериозно. Асад от самото начало на конфликта не допуска чужди медии в страната, следователно те разчитат на телефонни обаждания от очевидци, блогове и т.н. Естествено е, че информацията идва раздута и неточна, и така се публикува.

Така,че гадно лицемерие е да се твърди, че е виновна само едната страна, а другите бели и невинни агънца.

Хубаво, лицемерие е. Все още не знам кой твърди такова нещо, но е лицемерие.

Общо взето, не следя темата за Сирия. Само че всеки ден гледам новините на Euronews. За първи път онзи ден (или вчера) показаха "полковник" от Свободната сирийска армия в Хомс, който обясняваше за обстрела на града. Досега, а и днес, репортажите от Сирия по този канал следват един шаблон: "Правителствените сили <обстреляха/навлязоха в/обкръжиха> <град>, по непотвърдени данни загинаха <X> души. Показваме ви запис, за който се твърди, че е от <погребение, протест, друго> в <град>, за който обаче не можем да получим независимо потвърждение."
Винаги правителствените сили стрелят, а не се казва за ответните бойни действия. Даже и при няколкото излъчени клипа на действия на бунтовници.
Така че за такива като мен, които разчитат на снесеното от новините - а смея да твърдя, че това са повечето хора, - манипулация или най-малкото едностранчиво представяне на информацията има.
Е, разбира се, може по другите европейски телевизионни канали подходът да е по-различен.

[Dinain]

Отново - след като Асад не допуска чужди медии в страната, какво очакваш да публикуват тези медии? Каквото могат да докопат - записи от телефонни разговори, разкази от анонимни очевидци, аматьорски видео-клипове. Малкото, което пуска другата страна - сирийският официоз - е в стил "всичко е вражеска лъжа и пропаганда, няма никакви сражения" или "терористични банди атакуват вероломно силите на реда, но скоро ще бъдат заловени". Това е пълна порнография, ще извинявате за израза, и не е интересно за никого.

Случайно ми попадна продължение на официалния документ, публикуван от Торн:

The Mission determined that there is an armed entity that is not mentioned in the protocol. This
development on the ground can undoubtedly be attributed to the excessive use of force by Syrian Government
forces in response to protests that occurred before the deployment of the Mission demanding the fall of the
regime. In some zones, this armed entity reacted by attacking Syrian security forces and citizens, causing the
Government to respond with further violence. In the end, innocent citizens pay the price for those actions with
life and limb.
72. The Mission noted that the opposition had welcomed it and its members since their deployment to
Syria. The citizens were reassured by the Mission’s presence and came forward to present their demands,
although the opposition had previously been afraid to do so publicly owing to their fear of being arrested once
again, as they had been prior to the Mission’s arrival in Syria.

[Dinain]

Две мощни експлозии в Алепо, 28 убити и 235 ранени. Ударени са сгради на силите за сигурност.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16978803

Престрелка между сунити и алауити в Триполи, Ливан, след демонстрация против Асад. Използвани са и гранатомети.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16989939

[Евгени]

Престрелка между сунити и алауити в Триполи, Ливан, след демонстрация против Асад. Използвани са и гранатомети.

Днес някъде четох че Сирия струпва войски на границата с Ливан

[Kramer]

Става бая сложно. Нямаше как да не се пренесе и в Ливан.

[Евгени]

„Взгляд”: В Сирия действат британски и катарски спецчасти, заяви МВнР на Русия

http://www.focus-news.net/?id=n1619788

Много ми е чудно какво представляват " Катарските специални части "

[Dinain]

Syria analysis: Can Assad's army withstand growing pressure?
By Shashank Joshi Associate Fellow, Royal United Services Institute
Pressure is building on the Syrian army with a deepening armed uprising and growing defections. Shashank Joshi of the Royal United Services Institute considers how the military, the foundation of Bashar al-Assad's rule, is coping. Last year, late Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi ordered his army to forcibly crush a burgeoning protest movement. The eastern part of his army melted away immediately, and over eight months the rest progressively disintegrated to leave a rump of loyal, family-led units. Thirty years ago to this month, President Hafez al-Assad of Syria ordered his elite forces to level the city of Hama in response to a surging Islamist rebellion. Only one brigade defected. Thomas Friedman - in his book From Beirut to Jerusalem - called this decisive brutality "Hama rules". Hafez's successor and son, President Bashar al-Assad, is operating under "Homs rules" - neither those of Libya last year, nor Hama a generation ago. Mr Assad's security forces have been predictably resilient. A regime built around the Alawite sect has stacked its officer corps with co-religionists, fellow tribesmen, and family members. The 4th Mechanised Division, which recently scrambled to regain control of Damascus' suburbs, is drawn entirely from that sect. So too is the Republican Guard and influential air force intelligence. The Shabiha, an Alawite militia, has also been a useful auxiliary. In short, Syria's military has been turned into a ruthless confessional militia that is likely to see little future in a post-Assad Syria.

Prediction of collapse
At the same time, no army can withstand stresses of this intensity and duration without suffering problems of morale, integrity and loyalty. The country's demography means that only Sunni conscripts can fill up the rank-and-file. Although the regime has sought to limit their role in combat, a steady trickle of defections has been unavoidable. The military opposition's commander Col Riad al-Assad, based in southern Turkey, claims to command 40,000 soldiers in his Free Syrian Army (FSA). Gen Mustafa al-Sheikh, the highest-ranking defector so far, has estimated the regime's combat readiness as having fallen to "40% for hardware and 32% for personnel". He argues that there is a grave shortage of manpower, that Sunni officers have fled or been removed, and that large parts of the army are secretly reaching out the FSA to defect. Gen Sheikh, who has formed his own Higher Revolutionary Council to supersede the FSA, boldly predicts that "the army will collapse during February". That timeline is highly improbable. It is as much an effort to garner international support and induce further defections, as it is an objective assessment of regime capabilities. Even if defections are as numerous as the opposition claims, that would still leave the ratio of government-to-rebel forces as more than four-to-one - a margin of superiority exceeding that seen in Libya, supplemented by militias, and with airpower held largely in reserve. At the same time, President Assad's force long ago passed the point at which they could hope for a final, decisive assault like that of Assad senior at Hama in 1982.

Russian 'lifeline'
The most important factor is the deepening and widening of the uprising over recent months. Those once wedded to peaceful protest now judge that taking up arms is the only viable option. One important milestone has been the outbreak of violence this month in Syria's second city, Aleppo. The army is increasingly stretched across fronts that it did not have to worry about last year. It took days to regain control of suburbs around Damascus, and the town of Zabadani - scarcely 20 miles (32km) north-west of Damascus - was entirely seized by rebels last month. These growing commitments thin out, and increase the strain on, loyal units. The paradox is that more fighting means more defections, but failing to do so risks conceding territory on which the armed parts of the opposition can regroup and consolidate.
Mr Assad's security forces do retain some advantages. Libya taught us that rebel control of territory can be tenuous and easily reversible. Indeed, Zabadani is falling back into regime hands. Moreover, the external support to Damascus outstrips anything that might be flowing to the FSA from Turkey, Saudi Arabia or Qatar. Russia has already sent tons of ammunition, and this lifeline is expected to remain open. Gen Qassem Suleimani, commander of the elite Quds Force of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has reportedly served as "chief regime adviser and strategist". The Guardian reports that he "has taken up a spot in the war room" alongside President Assad and his ruling clique.

Minority fears
There is also diplomatic succour. Regimes can hold together or fall apart based on perceptions. Russia's angry veto of the modest UN resolution last week sent a powerful signal to those Syrian senior officers of wavering loyalty - Moscow is committed to preserving the regime in some form. It is rational for officials and groups hitherto sitting on the fence to adjust their loyalty in line with Russia's apparent commitment. One hope is that even if President Assad is squeezed out, a Yemen-style stage-managed transition keeps the "guts" of the regime in place. Some vulnerable minorities who see Assad as guarantor of their safety, have compelling reasons to take a gamble on this outcome. A secret US diplomatic cable from Damascus in 2006 observed "tremendous fear in the Alawite community about retribution if the Sunni majority ever regains power". Assad's "Homs rules" mean that he has no strategy, only tactics: indiscriminate bombardment of a fragmented opposition, the sharpening of sectarian loyalty to force minority communities to pick sides, and outreach to foreign patrons with a stake in his survival. It is hard to see how this can do anything but accelerate the militarisation of the opposition, induce greater countervailing help to the rebels from frustrated outsiders, and make it very hard for any pluralistic, democratic settlement to emerge from the wreckage.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16969501

[jamega]

Русия проучва възможността Арабската лига да изпрати съвместни сили на ООН и арабските страни в Сирия, но заяви, че е необходимо примирие преди изпращането на войници за опазване на мира. Това заяви руският външен министър Сергей Лавров.

http://world.actualno.com/news_377600.html

[Dinain]

Режимът в Дамаск "отхвърли категорично" предложението за съвместна мироопазваща мисия на ООН и Арабската лига в Сирия, за да се спре насилието, което продължава вече 11 месеца, съобщиха световните агенции. Дамаск отново получи подкрепа от Русия и Китай и предложението няма да може да мине през Съвета за сигурност на ООН. Руският външен министър Сергей Лавров заяви, че за изпращането на миротворци в Сирия е нужно съгласието на режима на Башар ал Асад и прекратяване на насилието и от двете страни. Арабската лига прекрати дипломатическите си отношения с Асад и мисията на наблюдателите си в Сирия. Организацията реши също да влезе в контакт със сирийската опозиция и да й окаже политическа и материална подкрепа. Вчера поне 27 цивилни загинаха при подновените артилерийски обстрели в бунтовническия град Хомс. От сирийската опозиция заявиха, че отхвърлят подкрепата на терористичната организация "Ал Кайда". Продължават сраженията между противници и привърженици на сирийския режим в ливанския град Триполи, където бяха ранени още 12 души, между които и ливански войници.

13 February 2012 Last updated at 17:00 GMT Help
The UN's human rights chief has said the situation in Syria should be referred to the International Criminal Court, after several inquiries concluded it was highly likely crimes against humanity were occurring in the country.
Navi Pillay, who has been sharply critical of the actions of President Bashar al-Assad's government, told the UN General Assembly it was vital that "all member states must ensure that these crimes do not go unpunished".