Войната в Сирия

[Amazon]

Динайн, аз лично ако не ми е много зор бих пропуснал подобна разходка. Ама ти по добре познаваш вилаета там.

[Dinain]

Спряли са полетите над северен Израел. Сирийската армия заявява, че е получила заповеди да приведе в готовност балистичния арсенал и при нова въздушна атака да отвърне с ракетен удар по Израел.

Поразените цели днес сутринта се изясняват като пратка ракети земя-земя "Фатех-110" за Хизбула. Бойна глава 650 кг, обсег 250 км.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fateh-110

Въздушният удар през януари е унищожил пратка "Бук-M1-2" за Хизбула.

http://news.yahoo.com/israeli-airstrikes-prompt-threats-anger-syria-193904390.html

Israeli defense officials have identified several strategic weapons that they say cannot be allowed to reach Hezbollah. They include Syrian chemical weapons, the Iranian Fateh-110s, long-range Scud missiles, Yakhont missiles capable of attacking naval ships from the coast, and Russian SA-17 anti-aircraft missiles. Israel's airstrike in January destroyed a shipment of SA-17s meant for Hezbollah, according to U.S. officials.

Israeli officials said Sunday they believe that Iran is stepping up its efforts to smuggle weapons through Syria to Hezbollah because of concerns that Assad's days are numbered.

They said the Fateh-110s reached Syria last week. Friday's airstrike struck a site at the Damascus airport where the missiles were being stored, while the second series of airstrikes early Sunday targeted the remnants of the shipment, which had been moved to three nearby locations, the officials said.

None of the Iranian missiles are believed to have reached Lebanon, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were discussing a classified intelligence assessment.

[Dinain]

Israeli air strikes: A warning to Syria's Assad

Back in January of this year, Israel struck a weapons convoy that intelligence sources suggest was carrying SA-17 advanced surface-to-air missiles that were to be transferred from Syria to Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

That strike was a warning, an effort to dissuade the regime of President Bashar al-Assad from contemplating any similar transfers to his allies in Lebanon.

These latest strikes suggest that this hoped-for deterrent effect has not been achieved. They demonstrate the Israeli Air Force's ability to hit targets well inside Syria, but they could be the first of many - a regular pattern of attacks that at any moment could risk provoking Syria, along with Hezbollah, into a regional war. The nightmare of a major spill-over of the Syria crisis would have become a reality.

So what is Israel's concern? While a good share of Israel's and indeed Washington's attention is taken up by fears about Syria's chemical arsenal falling into the wrong hands, these latest air strikes underscore Israel's equal worry about sophisticated conventional weapons being passed to Hezbollah. This includes sophisticated anti-aircraft missiles, anti-shipping missiles, or accurate long-range ground-to-ground missiles. Such concerns are longstanding.

Some four years ago, the then Israeli government of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert warned that it would not tolerate what it called "game-changing" weapons being transferred to Hezbollah.

According to US intelligence sources, the target of the first of these latest Israeli attacks which took place overnight on Thursday was a shipment of ground-to-ground missiles at a warehouse at Damascus airport.

The missiles, which had been shipped from Iran, according to the sources, were Fateh-110s - a mobile, highly accurate solid-fuelled missiles with the capability of hitting Israel's main population centres, like Tel Aviv, from southern Lebanon.

What's not clear, American officials admit, is exactly who the missiles were intended for - the Syrian army or Hezbollah. But the airport warehouse is said to have been under the control of personnel from Hezbollah and Iran's paramilitary Quds Force.
Longer game?

This episode highlights once again the strong triangular relationship between Tehran, Damascus and Hezbollah. Indeed, recent reports hint at Hezbollah's growing involvement in Syria's civil war with - according to some sources - hundreds of Hezbollah fighters supporting President Assad on the ground.

Iran, seeing its Syrian ally on the ropes, is clearly eager to bolster Hezbollah's defences in Lebanon. For his part, President Assad may feel obliged to transfer weaponry to Hezbollah in return for its active assistance. Indeed, the faster the Syrian regime crumbles, the faster the pace of weapons transfers may become.

Such transfers have advantages for Mr Assad as well. He may well be playing a longer game. Should his regime lose ground, he might be forced back into the Alawite heartland on the coast, and Hezbollah's military infrastructure in Lebanon would become an even more important ally, with much of Syria lost to him. On the other hand, if Mr Assad survives in Damascus, then a strengthened Hezbollah retains a constant threat of escalating the crisis into a regional conflict - something the US and its allies are desperate to avoid.
US President Barack Obama speaks in Costa Rica, 4 May 2013 President Obama has issued a "red-line" warning to Damascus over the potential use of chemical weapons

Given the scarcity of hard facts, it is difficult to come to definitive conclusions. Some Israeli reports, for example, suggest that the missiles struck at the Damascus warehouse were not Iranian Fateh-110s but the similar, Syrian-manufactured M-600.

What's even more intriguing is the second of the two Israeli air strikes in the early hours of Sunday morning. The target here was a military complex around Jamraya - an area with headquarters, research facilities and so on. We still do not know the specific target or targets hit, though the flames and explosions would have been visible to many people in Damascus itself. It is perhaps the nature of the target here that contains the real Israeli message to the Syrian president.

This now leaves Mr Assad and his Hezbollah allies in a difficult position. Should they respond in some way? Both see themselves as champions of the resistance against Israel. In the past, Hezbollah has sought to attack Israeli or Jewish targets overseas. Certainly any direct military response from Syria or southern Lebanon risks a much larger confrontation, which both President Assad and the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah would wish to avoid.

But it's hard to imagine the weapons shipments being halted. Too much is at stake. Depending upon the weather and Israel's intelligence capabilities, some may still get through.

But the Syrian crisis is entering new territory here. No wonder that experienced Israeli military analysts are already warning of the danger of war, as what promises to be a long hot summer fast approaches. Details remain sketchy, but Israel's air strikes against Syrian targets over the past few days are designed to send a powerful signal.

While President Barack Obama may be hesitant in acting to implement his "red-line" warning to Damascus over the potential use of chemical weapons, Israel is determined to enforce its own "red-line" relating to the transfer of sophisticated weaponry to Hezbollah.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22419221

[iasen ianakiev]

http://www.newsru.com/world/06may2013/siria.html - При Израелските въздушни удари са били атакувани-щаба на 4 дивизия на САА,подземни бункери с ракети"СКЪД",военните бази на 104 и 105 армейски бригади на САА където се предполага ,че се намират Ирански военни съветници и военнен научноиследователски център на армиятя на Сирия.Както вече споменахме атакувани са 43 обеста на териториятя на Сирия.

[Dinain]

Атакуваните обекти в неделя са само 3 (три).

[iasen ianakiev]

Общо атакуваните обекти са 43 при всички удари специално за неделя може и да са 3 обекта.

[Dinain]

Няма "всички удари". Има един удар в петък по един обект, и втори удар в неделя по три обекта (два военно-изследователски центъра и летище). Това е всичко, не знам откъде идва тази информация за 43(!?) атакувани обекта, но е грешна. Може би объркване заради многото вторични експлозии.

[piston]

Въздушният удар през януари е унищожил пратка "Бук-M1-2" за Хизбула.

Можеш ли да представиш доказателства за думите си (например снимки на поразените машини)? Малко ми е странно, че Сирия ще се лиши от едни от най-способните си системи....

[Dinain]

Тук е прието да се искат източници или аргументи, но за пръв път ми искат "доказателства" - да не би да съм попаднал на съдебната скамейка...?
Информацията се появи още тогава, като тази статия например. Снимки не съм търсил. В аналитичната тема пуснах статия, обясняваща защо Иран и Сирия бързат да прехвърлят "стратегически" оръжия към Хизбула, и защо с времето може да започнат да полагат още повече усилия тази насока.

Относно вчерашния удар. Това са кадри от сирийските медии - към края се виждат някакви овъглени машини, които напомнят носители на ракети земя-земя, но не мога да ги определя. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XkQcO...endscreen&NR=1
А това е от Ал-Манар: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hqcp99wIGWk (на 01:40 е много забавно - излиза че IAF са ударили кокошарник )

[Valio]

Объркана работа - Карла Дел Понте казва че не Асад, а въстаниците са използвали химическо оръжие:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/06/us-syria-crisis-un-idUSBRE94502Y20130506

Американците казват че не са знаели предварително за удара на Израел, Ердоган кълне Асад, Русия пък от своя страна била обезпокоена от нарастващото напрежение ОКОЛО Сирия. Пълна бъркотия.

[piston]

Снимки не съм търсил.

Ами ето, класическа "ОСА" (SA-8):

В аналитичната тема пуснах статия, обясняваща защо Иран и Сирия бързат да прехвърлят "стратегически" оръжия към Хизбула, и защо с времето може да започнат да полагат още повече усилия тази насока.

Проблем ли е да я ликнеш (може и с редакция в твоя пост, благодаря)?

А това е от Ал-Манар: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hqcp99wIGWk (на 01:40 е много забавно - излиза че IAF са ударили кокошарник )

Химическата програма на Ирак преди войната му с Иран, се е осъществявала с доставяне на компонентите чрез различни фирми за СЕЛСКОСТОПАНСКИ торове и пестициди.... Предполагам и фасилитата ще да изглеждат така (кокошките може да заместват белите мишки, например)... Едва ли е имало огромна табела с надпис "Хим. завод за зарин, табун, зоман, аман..."

[iasen ianakiev]

http://www.newsru.com/world/06may2013/ultim.html - Сирия нещо много войнствено се изказва обаче ако стане война и то с Израел,Сирия пак ще яде шамарите и ще клекне няма къде да ходи.

[Dinain]

Сега видях датата на първия клип (3 фев), значи се отнася за удара в края на януари.
Ето линк към статията - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22419221

[Dinain]

Timeline: Israeli attacks on Syrian targets
Recent strikes allegedly hit Iranian missiles bound for Hezbollah, amid growing fears of chemical weapons transfers.
Ben Piven Last Modified: 05 May 2013 17:53

Israeli missiles on Sunday struck the Scientific Studies and Research Centre in Jamraya near the Syrian capital Damascus, setting off explosions and causing casualties, Syria's state news agency SANA reported.

The attack was the second by Israel on targets in Syria in 48 hours, signaling a sharp escalation of Israeli involvement in Syria's bloody civil war.

Israel has said it wants to stay out of the conflict, but could be drawn in further as it tries to bolster deterrence and prevent sophisticated weapons from reaching Hezbollah.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has drawn "a red line", saying repeatedly his country stands prepared to take military action to prevent Hezbollah from obtaining new arms that could upset the existing regional power structure.

Raids on Syria by Israel - which commands one of the most advanced militaries in the world and is backed by the US - have not yet elicited a military response from Syria, or its allies in Iran and Hezbollah.

Below are details of the four most recent Israeli attacks on Syria:

May 5, 2013: Multiple Syrian military sites targeted
...
May 3, 2013: Surface-to-surface missiles struck
....
January 31, 2013: Weapons convoy bombed
...
September 6, 2007: Operation Orchard
...

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2013/05/20135512739431489.html

[iasen ianakiev]

http://ru.euronews.com/2013/05/06/un...rin-nerve-gas/ - Сирийските бунтовници са използвали химическо оръжие.